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Stable portfolio when one has little confidence in the stock market

So obviously stocks+bonds in whatever percentage combination are all great portfolios with varying level of risk. But, assume my outlook for the stock market is bearish/sideways for the next few years, what would you recommend?

I’ve built up this one, is it any good? I’m looking for low volatility/small drawdowns when shit hits the fan (so I can expand equity exposure after it happens).

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[https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1978&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&benchmark=VFINX&asset1=LargeCapBlend&allocation1_1=35&allocation1_2=30&asset2=ShortTreasury&allocation2_1=20&allocation2_2=25&asset3=LongTreasury&allocation3_1=30&allocation3_2=30&asset4=Gold&allocation4_1=15&allocation4_2=15&total1=100&total2=100&total3=0](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1978&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&benchmark=VFINX&asset1=LargeCapBlend&allocation1_1=35&allocation1_2=30&asset2=ShortTreasury&allocation2_1=20&allocation2_2=25&asset3=LongTreasury&allocation3_1=30&allocation3_2=30&asset4=Gold&allocation4_1=15&allocation4_2=15&total1=100&total2=100&total3=0)

Stable portfolio when one has little confidence in the stock market – RobinHood – Reddit Feed


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2 Comments

  • > assume my outlook for the stock market is bearish/sideways for the next few years

    If that’s your belief, you ought to be 100% in cash. Just don’t cry when the stock market bull keeps going up, or if the bear market is brief and recovers quickly.

    All of your asset types have some downside risk in a bear market, even T-bonds. Cash is the only sure way not to lose anything if you expect a bear market goes on for years.

    For a sideways market, it will depend on what the headwinds are. What macroeconomic factors do you think will keep growth in check? The answer to that question will tell you which asset classes have more or less risk. Like you wouldn’t want long term T-bonds if inflation is the problem.

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